Fractures of distal radius are one of the most common fractures seen by physicians and account for 20% of all fractures seen in the emergency room. In young adults, the fractures are typically the result of high-energy injuries, such as motor vehicular collisions and fall from height. In contrast, most of distal radial fractures in the elderly occur from low-energy injuries, such as a fall from a standing height. ¹,² Elderly female patients comprise the majority of patients with distal radius fractures. Standard posteroanterior and lateral radiographs of the distal radius and wrist are usually sufficient for diagnosis, classification, and decision making for treatment. The optimal treatment of distal radius fracture is controversial. However, in majority of instances, nonoperative treatment is selected at least initially. ¹,³

Instability is defined by redisplacement of the fracture site after it has been manipulated into anatomic position. Various factors contribute in secondary displacement of fracture fragments after anatomic or near anatomic close reduction and cast immobilization in distal radius fractures. Cooney et al., suggested that fractures with severe dorsal comminution and dorsal angulation greater than 20 have a significant chance of redisplacement after reduction. ⁴ Vaughan et al., emphasized on importance of dorsal angulation and radial shortening. ⁵ Makhni et al., considered that increase in age, significantly increases the rate of redisplacement. ⁶ Altissimi and Abbaszadegan et al., in two different studies, suggested that initial radial shortening of more than 4 mm is associated with increased rate of redisplacement after reduction. ⁷,⁸ Lafontaine et al., extended these concepts and suggested that dorsal angulation more than 20 degrees, presence of ulnar fracture, patient′s age more than 60 years, dorsal comminution, and intra-articular fracture line as risk factors for fracture instability and believed presence of three or more of these parameters are correlated with loss of position despite cast immobilization. ⁹

The aim of this study was to correlate further the radiographic outcome in the closed treatment of unstable distal radius fractures with these different risk factors.

From November 2010 to November 2012 there were 279 patients with distal radius fracture who were treated consecutively at our hospital. Standard initial treatment of displaced fractures were 5 kg of finger-trap traction followed by manual closed reduction of the fracture under intravenous sedation and immobilization by a forearm plaster-of-Paris cast with a moderate volar tilt and ulnar deviation. To be included in this study each patient had to have the following criteria: (1) Presence of three or more instability factors as described by Lafontaine et al., (presence of intra-articular fracture, dorsal comminution, associated ulna fracture, age 60 years or more, dorsal angulation more than 20 degrees), (2) skeletal maturity, (3) adequate plain radiographs in posteroanterior and lateral plane from the date of injury, after reduction; and 1, 2, 3, and 6 weeks after reduction, (4) unilateral distal radius fractures, (5) absence of previous deformity or fracture in either wrists, and (6) acceptable reduction based on initial post reduction films. According to Bini et al., ¹⁰ after reduction, fractures with a radial shortening of less than 2 mm, a change in radial inclination of less than 5 degrees, less than 2 mm step-off, or loss of palmar tilt of less than 10 degrees (no extension more than neutral, or 0 degree) were considered acceptable. The contralateral uninjured wrist X-ray was made to evaluate the radial shortening and inclination with the injured site. Finally, 157 patients were included in this prospective study Figure 1. Institutional review board approval was obtained. There were 107 women and 50 men, with a mean age of 51 ± 16.7 years (range: 20-86 years). Post reduction radiographs were performed in the posteroanterior and lateral planes, after reduction, at 1, 2, 3, and 6 weeks after reduction. All radiographs were analyzed during the follow-up period with respect to dorsal comminution, angulation, radial shortening, articular step-off, and radial inclination. Measurements were independently made by two of the coinvestigators; any discrepancies that arose were referred to the principle investigator Mohammad Ali Tahririan (M.A.T), who was blinded to the name of the patients.Figure 1

Summary of methodology for selecting patients

A total number of 157 patients were studied. The mean age of the patients was 51 ± 16.7 years. Most of the patients were female, 107 (68.2%) compared to 50 (31.8%). The patients were followed-up for 6 weeks. Based on the radiographic criteria for an acceptable reduction, 92 patients (58.6%) failed to maintain an acceptable reduction and classified as group I, while in 65 patients (41.4%), the postoperative radiographs were within an acceptable range and classified as group II.

Failure to maintain an acceptable reduction mainly occurred within two weeks post reduction. The details of which are described in Figure 2.Figure 2

Number of patients who failed to maintain the reduction during follow-up

Fractures of the distal radius are among the most common injuries encountered in orthopedic practice. Initial treatment consists of closed reduction and immobilization. While anatomic reduction can usually be achieved by closed manipulation, there is a paucity of evidence as to the most appropriate method of immobilization or fixation. Our study focused on unstable distal radius fractures according to Lafontaine′s criteria, managed by closed reduction and cast immobilization. We considered immobilization of the fracture for 6 weeks to be adequate.

Numerous clinical studies have reported the age as statically significant predictor for redisplacement. ¹,⁶,¹¹,¹²,¹³ The reported rate of redisplacement in unstable distal radius fractures after achieving an acceptable reduction, varied between 54 and 73%. ⁶,¹⁴

Several studies have evaluated radiographic outcomes of patients with distal radius fracture who were treated nonsurgically. Nesbit et al., found age as the most important factor among Lafontaine′s criteria for prediction of secondary displacement, and with regard to radiographic surveys, 48% of secondary displacements occurred within 2 weeks following closed reduction and splintage. ¹

Abbaszadegan et al., analyzed data for 267 patients with distal radius fracture who were managed with closed reduction and cast immobilization for 4 weeks. They found that the initial radial shortening, Lidström′s classification, and age as the most important independent factors for the risk of redisplacement; ⁷ while Mackenney et al., believed that age and ulnar variance are the main predictors of early instability in distal radius fractures. ¹³ Hove et al., found that the initial dorsal angulation, radial length, and patient age were predictors of malunion. ¹² Jenkins reported that significant radial shortening and loss of radial height at presentation, regardless of presence of intra-articular involvement and dorsal comminution are associated with redisplacement and malunion. ¹⁵

Our study supports the contention that displaced fractures are difficult to hold and mostly redisplacement occurs within 2 weeks post reduction and cast immobilization. This is in accordance with other reports. ¹,¹³ In this study; we demonstrated that presence of ulna fracture, intra-articular involvement, dorsal comminution, and the amount of dorsal angulation during the presentation were not statistically significant between the groups. Our study confirms the importance of loss of radial height, loss of radial inclination, and age as factors related to secondary displacement. These variables were analyzed independently and revealed that if we consider the 6.5 mm loss of radial height in comparison with uninjured side as the cut-off point, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) would be 84 and 64.5% respectively. Similarly, 6.5 degrees loss of radial inclination seems to be the best cut-off point and accordingly PPV and NPV would be 77.9 and 71%, respectively. ROC curve for age, declares that risk for secondary displacement increases as age increases, and age equal to 52 year is the best cut-off point with PPV and NPV of 78.8 and 65%, respectively. Subsequently, these variables were analyzed together for predicting the radiographic outcomes more precisely.

Our data show that the presence of loss of radial height of more than 6.5 mm and loss of radial inclination of more than 6.5 degrees together in a patient with distal radius fracture, has 93% chance of secondary displacement; and if the patient′s age is more than 52 years, the risk increases to 95.5%.

On the other hand, in a patient with a distal radius fracture who is less than 52-years-old, with primary loss of radial height of less than 6.5 mm and loss of radial inclination of less than 6.5 degrees after initial acceptable closed reduction, the chance of maintaining reduction in an acceptable range without displacement would be 84.2%.

Our quantitative data can be used by the surgeon to inform patient of chance of success with nonoperative treatment and to allow the patient to decide on treatment in a more refined and informed manner.

This study has inherent limitations. The main limitation of this study is that the results are based on radiographic analysis and clinical results are ignored. There may be patients with distal radius fracture whose final radiographs after union is unacceptable, but the patients function is not impressed significantly. ²,¹⁶,¹⁷,¹⁸,¹⁹,²⁰,²¹ This is true especially in elderly and low demand patients. A second critique might be that this is a single center study, and the results may not be universal to all patient population.

In conclusion, this study identified the main predictive factors for secondary displacement in distal radius fractures. Radial shortening of more than 6.5 mm, loss of radial inclination of more than 6.5 degrees, and age above 52 years at presentation are the most important predictive factors. This may indicate that these patients should be treated with more reliable fixation device.